A simulation study on the effects of climate change and potential management strategies for sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Production of Moench in Northeastern Ethiopia's Semi-Arid Region

Abstract

One of the contemporary problems that has a significant impact on all climate-sensitive industries, including agriculture, is climate change. To reduce the effects and maintain local food supply, crop management strategies are required.The study's goals were to: (1) calibrate and assess the CERES-Sorghum Model of DSSAT (V4.7) for simulating sorghum phenology, growth, and yield; (2) evaluate projected climate changes (2030s and 2050s) in the study area; (3) simulate the impact of projected climate change on sorghum phenology, above-ground biomass, and grain yield; and (4) investigate the possibility of using sorghum cultivars and supplemental irrigation as management options. Using experimental data, the CERES-sorghum model in DSSAT (V4.7) was initially calibrated and assessed for the sorghum cultivar Girana-1. The closest weather station in Sirinka, Ethiopia, provided daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2009, including rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, and sun radiation. CIAT's climate change portal (http://ccafs-climate.org/) provided the 17 CMIP5 GCM outputs ran under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2030 and 2050 time slices, which were then downscaled to the target locations using Markism GCM. According to the model calibration result, the model's cultivar-specific parameters were appropriately modified. With a minimal RMSE of 1.83 for anthesis, 3.3 for physiological maturity, 685.6 for grain yield, and 477.8 for above-ground biomass yield, the model assessment results also demonstrated that it accurately replicated phenology, grain yield, and above-ground biomass yield. According to the study of the future climate, the mean maximum temperature is expected to rise by 1.40C and 1.90C by the 2030s and 2050s time periods, respectively, under RCP 4.5, and by 1.50C and 2.50C by the 2030s and 2050s time phases, respectively, under RCP 8.5. According to RCP 4.5, rainfall is expected to rise by 1.5% and 4.5% in the 2030s and 2050s, respectively, and by 3.7% and 3.2% in the 2030s and 2050s, respectively, under RCP 8.5. Sorghum phenology is expected to decline considerably (P < 0.05) in the 2030s and 2050s. Nonetheless, a large (P < 0.05) rise in sorghum grain output is anticipated in the 2030s and 2050s. The modeling results also indicated that long-maturing cultivars and more irrigation will significantly boost sorghum grain output under future climatic conditions.